COVID 19: Asymptomatic people are highly unlikely to be carriers.

New report by the World Health Organization.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-who-bn/index.html

We have also learned that COVID has a very low transmission factor on surfaces. Further, the fatality rate for younger people and those without any co-morbidity factors is extremely low.

My take: In retrospect, the wholesale cancellation of certain events may not have been necessary (emphasis on may not).

I get the “better safe than sorry” logic though. A wait and see approach still makes the most sense whenever possible, however I understand that the ramp up time for RAGBRAI is long. Smaller rides though (fewer than say 500) with much simpler logistics? I don’t understand the need to cancel those several months in advance.

OK, so I know this is a hot-button topic, so let the slings and arrows fly. I can take it.

4 Replies

mootsman, June 9, 2020 at 12:45 pm

Interesting new information. The media has of course referenced the states with increasing positive tests usually without even a passing nod to the fact that the states are all testing more. If you test more people in a week of course you’ll find more cases. The media now calls all increases “spikes”. Sounds more dramatic.

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Mark Walker, June 9, 2020 at 1:14 pm

Whoops! What a deal seems such a constantly fluid situation even the experts speak out of turn.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/who-scrambles-to-clarify-comments-on-asymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-much-is-still-unknown.html

“I was responding to a question at the press conference. I wasn’t stating a policy of WHO or anything like that. I was just trying to articulate what we know,” she said on a live Q&A streamed across multiple social media platforms. “And in that, I used the phrase ‘very rare,’ and I think that that’s misunderstanding to state that asymptomatic transmission globally is very rare. I was referring to a small subset of studies.”

Read more: Coronavirus live updates: WHO clarifies remarks on asymptomatic spread; data shows China had virus in fall

Studies show that about 16% of the population may be asymptomatic, she said. Some models developed by other scientists suggest as much as 40% of global transmission may be due to asymptomatic individuals, she said, clarifying her comments.

“Some estimates of around 40% of transmission may be due to asymptomatic, but those are from models, so I didn’t include that in my answer yesterday, but wanted to make sure that I covered that here,” Kerkhove said.

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BarryTantlinger, June 13, 2020 at 12:47 am

Some times its important to remember that scientists are not necessarily good at talking to the public.

Also, other scientists and doctors almost immediately disagreed with Kerkhove.

This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by BarryTantlinger.

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