I’m almost 100 percent sure RAGBRAI will get cancelled

I wouldn’t be surprised if it does…what are you going to do in place of RAGBRAI? It would be cool to go from the starting point in Iowa’s Ride (it’ll get cancelled) and go all the way to the west coast…hmmmmmm, many states over 2 weeks?? Anyone down to do this??

71 Replies

cheymtn70, April 6, 2020 at 10:24 am

Hi, Captain Obvious here. From Larry’s post –
Unless we develop a vaccine before or in the first couple weeks after the peak, it will not help. The whole thing is that novel viruses spread through the population very quickly and everyone either gets the disease and becomes immune, or doesn’t get the disease because they have developed an immunity. After it peaks, there will be a few vulnerable pockets, usually isolated or nearly isolated areas, but infection should fall off quickly as it did in China, Korea, and Japan. They are back to near normal. If we don’t get a vaccine in the next month or so, it won’t have a dramatic effect until we get a new population of unexposed people.

The vast majority of our citizens have not had the disease, nor have they developed immunity. The majority of our population is still at risk. Social distancing is in place to flatten the curve so that our healthcare system is not overwhelmed. Only wide scale antibody testing will tell us who MIGHT have immunity. As for Japan, well – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52184375

Captain Obvious – over and out.

#1317407

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 10:29 am

Mootsman is Captain obvious with his profound observation “RAGBRAI officials will decide.”

#1317408

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 10:33 am

Your specualation that we are able to flatten the curve is open for debate. Look at the countries/places that have different levels of social distancing (lots, USA, some Sweden,none, developing countries) and compare mortality timeline curves. That would be valid. And interesting. Sweden appears to have rapidly risen and is now dropping, and it is not sheltering in place.

#1317409

mootsman, April 6, 2020 at 11:35 am

April 15 is the day of the RAGBRAI announcement. Some miss the point completely. Of course it’s obvious RAGBRAI will decide but you must have missed all the speculative posts about that claim to know the outcome. Guess you missed the obvious point after all.

#1317413

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 11:37 am

It is obvious, no need to repeat it.

#1317415

Jboz, April 6, 2020 at 12:57 pm

[quote quote=1317407]As for Japan, well – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52184375%5B/quote%5D

Japan has been an obvious outlier until recently. I suspect Japan’s curves have looked similar to most other countries from the start…but they may have been suppressing the real numbers in an effort to try and salvage the Olympics. Once the decision was made to cancel, Japan then began allowing their numbers to “skew back” to reflect reality. I have a statistical background, and numerical anomalies with large sample sizes ALWAYS have an underlying explanation. So full disclaimer that I have no evidence to back this up…just a strong hunch.

#1317421

mootsman, April 6, 2020 at 2:16 pm

Bigbrad: Still missing the point. It’s not obvious to those that speculate. So they need the obvious pointed out.

#1317422

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 2:40 pm

No point to get but speculate away.

#1317424

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 2:43 pm

An outlyer. A datapoint that does not fit you preconceived bias. Lol

#1317425

Luv 2 Ski, April 6, 2020 at 3:11 pm

I will speculate that on April 15 that RAGBRAI management will tell us of their decision to ride or not ride in the third sentence of their blog. Anyone want to speculate on the over/under on that?

If I was a betting man I would lay money on the under. Pure speculation on my part.

#1317426

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 3:31 pm

4th sentence. It is OBVIOUS

#1317427

Jboz, April 6, 2020 at 4:12 pm

[quote quote=1317425]An outlyer. A datapoint that does not fit you preconceived bias. Lol[/quote]

Outlier: A value that lies outside (is much smaller or larger than) most of the other values in a set of data.

#1317428

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 4:17 pm

A statistician, one that doesn’t say always.

#1317429

cheymtn70, April 6, 2020 at 4:40 pm

Japan may have been an outlier, but S. Korea and Hong Kong are also seeing a second wave after easing their rules on mitigation. I have no doubt that we’ll see that here when we open back up for business. Interesting that Vail Resorts is reporting that they see an ongoing impact on Q4/20 and Q1/21 revenues. I know that they’re practicing financial CYA, but they know that this is going to be with us longer than we think.

#1317431

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 5:07 pm

Interesting, do you have a link to that 2nd wave?

#1317435

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