I’m almost 100 percent sure RAGBRAI will get cancelled

I wouldn’t be surprised if it does…what are you going to do in place of RAGBRAI? It would be cool to go from the starting point in Iowa’s Ride (it’ll get cancelled) and go all the way to the west coast…hmmmmmm, many states over 2 weeks?? Anyone down to do this??

71 Replies

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 5:14 pm

I just looked at the Japanese mortality data. Anyone that has a clue about stats would say one thing, to small of a number to even speculate about, let alone say it is an outlier. My goodness

#1317437

Jboz, April 6, 2020 at 6:28 pm

BigBrad, I have far more than “a clue” about statistics.

Some facts:
1) There were 2,420 weekly flights between China (the epicenter) and Japan prior to suspension of travel.
2) Japan was slower to suspend from China than the US, doing so 10 days later.
3) Japan is an urban and highly densely populated country. It has roughly 39% the US population, but crammed into 4% of the land mass. That equates to a population density rate (people per sq/km) 900% greater than the US.
4) Japan’s population has a median age 7 years older than the US.

All of this adds up to ideal environmental conditions for COVID-19 to flourish like it has in the rest of the developed world…or greater, yet as of 3/31 Japan’s per capita infection rate was 1/10 that of the US? Yes, this defies logic and represents a significant deviation from that of most other developed nations. Add in the fact that Japan has (or had) a significant investment in the 2020 Olympics and were trying to mitigate that. Draw your own conclusions…I have drawn mine and I stand by them.

#1317438

bigbrad2008, April 6, 2020 at 6:31 pm

Number is to small to draw any conclusions. Did you get a degree in stats?

#1317439

Jboz, April 6, 2020 at 7:02 pm

Bigbrad – since you asked, a BS in Economics, a Masters in Business Administration – with a Finance concentration. Heavy statistics all during my academic career. Then 27 years in Finance with 3 major Wall Street firms with General Securities Principal credentials before moving on to lead other business ventures. To top if off, I lived in Japan for 4 years. At the risk of extending this pedantic discussion, I will leave my background at that. But rest assured I know numbers, I know what I’m talking about, and I’m quite familiar with the Law of Small Numbers. The fact is that Japan’s reported COVID-19 numbers ARE small…and that’s the point. Statistically speaking, they should NOT be small. The fact that they are extremely small compared to other similar countries IS the outlier. The entire point is that their small sample size is highly suspect.

#1317441

cheymtn70, April 6, 2020 at 7:16 pm

Luv 2 Ski –
Where do you get that April 15th date? I’ve never heard anything about April 15th.

#1317442

bigbrad2008, April 7, 2020 at 4:04 pm

Before 3 deaths a day out of 130 million, now 6 a day out of 130 million. You make me chuckle

#1317471

Sandaltan ., April 7, 2020 at 5:56 pm

From the above referenced link:
Anne Lawrie, marketing director for the Register’s Annual Great Bicycle Ride Across Iowa, said there will be a decision April 15 about whether the nation’s largest annual bike tour will happen as scheduled in mid-July. There’s a complex checklist of things to organize, from merchandising to logistics along the route.

RAGBRAI brings thousands of cyclists together to ride, party and camp in close proximity to one another for an entire week. Lawrie said that, if the current prohibitions on mass gatherings stay in effect, RAGBRAI will be forced to comply and cancel.

The factors challenging RAGBRAI go beyond crowd size: The financial strain of coronavirus on host towns may also influence the decision. The planned RAGBRAI route has overnight stops in six towns across the state, each of which must be able to feed and offer accommodations to the riders.

Seems to me from what I have read and viewed at the route announcement that Dieter Drake, as Director of RAGBRAI, has a very diminished role in the proceedings. Now, reading that Amanda Parrott’s new responsibilities include “logistics”, I am a bit concerned that the leadership is being splintered.

RIDE RIGHT

#1317473

bigbrad2008, April 7, 2020 at 6:23 pm

Thank you for that information. Sounds like the decision has already been made

#1317474

Mike Murphy, April 7, 2020 at 8:01 pm

If Ragbrai is cancelled which I think it will be, and the curve flattens out enough to allow group activities by the first of August. Some of us plan on doing a five day ride somewhere in the Midwest. We will find a town that we will do five loops off of. Stay in the same hotel each day. It won’t be Ragbrai but will give us a reason to keep training this summer. Still hoping we will be on Ragbrai in July but I don’t think that is looking promising.

#1317475

Sandaltan ., April 7, 2020 at 8:25 pm

Murphymp: Did as you described. Eight of us stayed at Victoria’s Bed and Breakfast in Xenia, Ohio and had a great time some years ago, garage to store bikes and pool table upstairs. Five trails intersect at Xenia. We have visited Xenia five times in the last 8 or 9 years, don’t miss Yellow Springs, craft brewery right on the trail. Plenty of info on the internet about the trail.

RIDE RIGHT

#1317476

Jboz, April 7, 2020 at 9:41 pm

Murphymp – curve will not only be flattened by then, it will be flatlined.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Pick a state…any state.

I might just do Banff…been on my cycling bucket list for years, but RAGBRAI always took top priority.

#1317477

mootsman, April 8, 2020 at 6:33 am

While the social distancing may be effective for reducing the peak won’t it just make the curve longer since the virus is already out there. People will get it, not matter how quickly. So it will impact events further into the future.

While looking at the signals from RAGBRAI officials is not speculating they don’t look positive. The earlier decision date could just mean they need more lead time to cancel or go head. But why after putting the link for the 2020 route out under “The Ride” link did they recently remove it. That also possibly could be that a few towns said no so they are preparing a re-route. I’m still hoping that RAGBRAI will be among the first large events to stay cool and lead the US back to normal.

This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by mootsman.

#1317485

Hobes, April 8, 2020 at 8:00 am

We are going to DM get a motel room and ride the trails (Raccoon and others) for 2-3 days. Doing out and back rides. Not the same, will miss the lines for the bathrooms..

#1317487

mootsman, April 8, 2020 at 9:03 am

We are going to DM get a motel room and ride the trails (Raccoon and others) for 2-3 days. Doing out and back rides. Not the same, will miss the lines for the bathrooms..

We’re doing the same thing also. With luck as part of The Bacoon Ride itself but either way. And we look to RAGBRAI to lead the way back from the panic-demic. Fear has way too much sway currently.

#1317488

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