RAGBRAI & How Does Warm Weather Kill Off the Coronavirus?

I get the impression RAGBRAI has nothing to fear from the Coronavirus in that warm weather should spell the end of the outbreak according to some news outlets. But does someone know why warm weather will save RAGBRAI? Either that or the US will continue to keep it well under control so no one will even think about cancelling RAGBRAI.

There are lots of myths about this virus as a popular search right now is how Corona beer causes the Conronavirus. Not sure how that got started.

Interesting fact according to my doc, the flu this year has killed thousands more people then the Coronavirus. Much of the fear seems to be a bit of an over reaction.

Don’t want to see RAGBRAI fall to the fear like the UAE Tour did:
https://www.velonews.com/2020/02/news/uae-tour-halted-after-five-stages-amid-coronavirus-threat_505611

This topic was modified 9 months ago by mootsman.

75 Replies

mootsman, March 8, 2020 at 9:39 am

The death rate we are seeing in exposed populations is about 3 %. That means 97 % recover and survive. I agree with many others there are higher risk during RAGBRAI ( like wiping out on a road crack and hitting your head or food borne illness mentioned ).

3% is the exaggerated rate. It’s 3% of the people who were both tested and have the virus. It does not include those who have it but were never tested and just got better. Most have mild symptoms.

Currently 20,000 died from the flu. And yet no big panic about that. It’s well within the norm for the flu season.

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KenH, March 10, 2020 at 3:54 pm

I guess that what you could legitimately call a panic is continuing to build. The stock market did recover briefly and then has tanked again and again and…. There’s talk of canceling the Giro which does seem likely and appropriate at this point but the infection could peak and decline in Italy before that decision has to be made. There’s concern about the Tour as well. US employers, mine at least, are imposing travel restrictions and facility visit protocols. Businesses and trade groups are canceling shows and seminars. The reported death rate is about 3% now but I also think it is likely that deaths are being accurately counted but those who are sick and recover on their own are not necessarily being counted so the true rate is likely to be lower. If you are both elderly (I guess I qualify!) and have other health issues (I don’t) you should be very, very careful.

At the moment it would seem that a RAGBRAI cancellation is more conceivable now than the last time I spoke but still not a certainty. There is still plenty of time for the infection to peak and fade. Do take the commonsense precautions that are being published. Even if you are not in a vulnerable group and most of you are not, by being careful you can prevent someone who is vulnerable from being infected.

Hope to see you all in a small town in Iowa in July!

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Larry Klaaren, March 11, 2020 at 11:45 am

It’s 3% of the people who were both tested and have the virus. It does not include those who have it but were never tested and just got better. Most have mild symptoms.

Morbidity is “the condition of being diseased”. The way morbidity is calculated is per cent of the exposed people who develop clinical signs. Mortality is calculated as the people who are showing clinical signs who pass away. So the 3.4 % is accurate if the disease is being properly diagnosed. The mortality rate of flu is just under 2%. In the US we are not prepared for this. We do not have an adequate number of test kits at this time. If a mass exposure occurs we will not be able to test many of the potential cases. We have very few masks available that will filter out this very small virus. Wearing a surgical mask is just a “feel good about it” thing. We don’t have the beds to hospitalize the number of cases that could develop. So there are potential problems. In the past our practice has been to over prepare. That is not happening in this case.

This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by Larry Klaaren.

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rjjensenia, March 11, 2020 at 3:41 pm

“The mortality rate of flu is just under 2%” I think it is a LOT lower than 2%. More like .1%

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Arthur Hackett, March 11, 2020 at 3:47 pm

My wife who is a retired medical professional, says being outside in the sunlight means you are absorbing vitamin D which jacks up your immune system. If you have been training your lungs are likely in good shape which makes you less susceptible to infection. And if you sneeze anything in the aerosol that comes out will be exposed to UV light which will nuke any organisms. The normal flu season is in the winter when conditions are the opposite of Iowa in the summer. But she says the norovirus is more likely to get you.

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mootsman, March 11, 2020 at 4:18 pm

The problem with how they calculate the COVID 19 morbidity rate Larry is with COVID 19 the number of people is the number of people tested, not exposed. Most have fairly mild symptoms and never go in to get tested but they don’t know how many. So the number of people exposed is an unknown. And correct Arthur, the flu morbidity is 0.1%.

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mootsman, March 11, 2020 at 8:09 pm

The death rate we are seeing in exposed populations is about 3 %. That means 97 % recover and survive. I agree with many others there are higher risk during RAGBRAI ( like wiping out on a road crack and hitting your head or food borne illness mentioned ).

It’s not 3% of the exposed populations. There is no way to count “exposed population”. It is 3% of those that tested positive for the virus. 97% of those that are tested do not have the virus but its just those that get tested. And there are lots of people that get it, never get tested and just recover. Not many go to the doc over mild symptoms. If there was a way to count those that have it and do not get tested that rate would do nothing but go down.

This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by mootsman.

This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by mootsman.

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cheymtn70, March 11, 2020 at 11:06 pm

It would be interesting to know how many registrations have been received over the past 7-10 days. I bet the number has dropped off rather dramatically. RAGBRAI should consider offering a complete money-back guarantee if the ride is cancelled. I’m reading that well-respected infectious disease experts see this lasting at least 3-4 months. None of them are predicting, with any certainty, that there will be a summer slow down … this is a new virus. It will be interesting to see what the pass through and overnight towns think about 20,000 people riding through.

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rjjensenia, March 12, 2020 at 8:06 am

Mootsman said.. “97% of those that are tested do not have the virus”

I think I understand what you meant, but the above statement is not correct. Of those testing POSITIVE for virus approx 3.4% are dying. The problem is we do not know how many people are actually infected. That being said since we don’t know the true denominator it is quite possible the death rate is much lower.

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skb-mpls, March 12, 2020 at 9:53 am

I would urge caution – not panic. Many RAGBRAI riders are over 60+ years of age. This includes myself. Many of us have complicating medical conditions that put us at a much higher risk. I have cardiac disease and cycle to minimize my health risks.

Now, if you are under 40 years of age – you have little to worry about – except that you may spread the virus to your parents, grandparents or fellow riders!

Currently as of March 12, the US has only tested 7900 individuals in the US! When testing becomes more widespread in the US – we will be able to determine the scope of the pandemic. This virus has the capacity to double every week! In my opinion – it is disgraceful that the US lags behind the entire world in virus testing. Only after we know the facts – can we fight this by containment in the US and elsewhere and reduce deaths of the vulnerable population.

Hopefully this will be contained and eliminated by July – but I am not optimistic give the current efforts.

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Larry Klaaren, March 12, 2020 at 10:09 am

Hopefully this will be contained and eliminated by July – but I am not optimistic give the current efforts.

The stated objective of the approach in the US is to flatten out the curve by limiting exposures so that medical facilities and personnel will not be as overwhelmed in the short term. This is not a proven approach, so we will see.
If it works, then this could extend to late summer or longer. If it does not work, it could be over with in six to eight weeks, but there will be more tragedies such as nursing homes that have most of their elderly and sick patents contracting the disease. Reality will probably be somewhere in between.

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mootsman, March 12, 2020 at 10:18 am

Mootsman said.. “97% of those that are tested do not have the virus”

I think I understand what you meant, but the above statement is not correct. Of those testing POSITIVE for virus approx 3.4% are dying. The problem is we do not know how many people are actually infected. That being said since we don’t know the true denominator it is quite possible the death rate is much lower.

You are correct, I stated that badly. Its 3% of those that test positive, not all that were tested. We are missing an important number: ** The total number of infected, tested or not.

The 1st one being the most important. From the reports I’ve read there seem to be lots of people that get it that never get tested. They get better so the actual death rate is likely well under that 3%. One thing for sure to be gone before RAGBRAI has to decide, irrational fear.

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cheymtn70, March 12, 2020 at 11:40 am

Irrational fear took over after irrational optimism failed. Nobody wants to see RAGBRAI cancelled.

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Jboz, March 12, 2020 at 3:57 pm

I highly doubt this virus will still be an issue in July. Some reports are that China, as poorly prepared as they were and as densely populated as they are, is already normalizing.

And even in the remote chance that RAGBRAI organizers did choose to cancel it, unlike the NBA or March Madness, they can’t exactly cancel roads, bikes and the human spirit. Thus, there would be nothing really preventing me or anyone else from riding the route in July.

If there are no charters, just camp.
If there is no baggage truck, just pack light.
If there are no concerts, just bring a bluetooth speaker.
If there are no beer gardens, then Caseys will have a supply of cold beer.

And I’m pretty sure I would not be alone out there.

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Sandaltan ., March 12, 2020 at 8:17 pm

Jboz: A DIY RAGBRAI……….pure bandit. What an idea! A bagger’s dream.

RIDE RIGHT

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