I had to sell my wristband last year due to an injury. There were lots of postings; those sell and those looking to purchase. Look in the 2016 forums to get a sense of your chances.

Beyond that, I don’t have enough data to give you a probability. You could join a team too. I’ve seen several postings from teams looking for members. I’ve read being on a team increases your chances in the lottery.

I’d say your chances are really good! …and if you were really desperate, there are day passes available, if that falls through, ride anyway. Someone will carry your stuff, if you’re not self-contained.

Most people looking to buy week long passes after April 1st failed to submit their registration for the lottery. I don’t recall anybody indicating they were not picked in the lottery over the last few years.

If you sign your waver, pay your fee and register before the deadline you are in. Period.

RIDE RIGHT

Thanks everyone!

Hope to join you in June!

I had an injury in April 2015 after I had my weeklong pass. I could barely sell it, as there were so many sellers and not enough buyers. I did finally sell “at a discount” my registration for $100 to a rider in early July.
Seems there are more sellers than buyers every year, so if you miss the deadline you should still be able to easily get a pass.
Ride On!

I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone post here that they registered for the ride and was not selected in the lottery.